2016 Presidential Election Predictions


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As the election winds down, it is unclear who will be the next President of the United States

The 2016 election season has been one of the most controversial election seasons ever. However, it is finally November 8, Election Day. Every voter has his or her own opinion about who they want to win the election, but in the end, it’s the numbers that count.  Here are predictions on which way swing states will go, and who will end up winning the election based on some of the newest numbers available.

Winning swing states is always very important for presidential nominees, and this year is no exception. There are eleven states that are almost always considered swing states, and are very key states to gain support in for the presidential election. Historically, the key swing states have been Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. The weighted prediction for this election, which takes into account the different number of electoral votes in each state, shows Clinton obtaining 3% more votes than Trump in these states. The three closest swing states according to FiveThirtyEight are Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina, and these states may end up deciding the election.


A very important swing state with 29 votes in the Electoral College, Florida has been extremely close between Clinton and Trump, yet in polls, has recently been leaning slightly more towards Trump. On November 1, three new polls showed Trump with a 4-point lead, but on November 2, his lead dropped to only 1 point ahead. Florida is currently leaning towards voting Trump, and he has a good chance of winning the state, yet this could change over the next few days with new polls coming out everyday.


Nevada, a swing state with 6 electoral votes, harbors a  2.6-point lead by Trump as of November 2. However, the average of five polls conducted in Nevada throughout October states Clinton having a 1.8-point lead. These differing poll numbers prove that Nevada is anybody’s game, and either Trump or Clinton could win this state depending on their campaigns and other factors until the election.  Right now, there has been a shift in this toss up state towards Trump, and it seems likely there will Trump victory here, but anything could happen on Election Day.

North Carolina 

North Carolina, another very important swing state, has 15 electoral votes, and currently is being held in a 1-point lead by Clinton. In this election, North Carolina has been frequently changing from a Trump state to a Clinton state, and can be expected to continue flitting between the two candidates until Election Day. Overall, the support of swing states is a gamble and can never be relied on since they change very often and rarely have safe holds by a candidate, but Clinton has held onto this state for a large part of the race, and that trend should continue on Election Day.

The Overall Race 

Although both candidates have areas of strong support, most polls have led to predictions that Clinton will win the presidency. It takes 270 electoral votes to win the office of president, and Clinton is predicted to win enough votes to become president.  Many other models like the Princeton Election Consortium Electoral Map show a Clinton victory with 317 electoral votes. In this model, Trump is expected to win some key swing states but not Florida and North Carolina, which puts him behind Clinton.

In the FiveThirtyEight Polls-Plus Forecast, Clinton is also expected to win, but with less total votes from the Electoral College than in the other model. In this model, Clinton is shown winning less key swing states giving her a total of 272 electoral votes. This model would not predict Florida, Nevada, and North Carolina because they are all too close to predict, which means even without those states Clinton could win by a narrow margin.

Sophomore Elizabeth Brown believes that “Trump is going to win this election because the latest FBI investigation has hurt Clinton’s campaign, and she has a very short time to fix it. Many undecided and independent voters are now beginning to lean towards Trump, giving him the opportunity to push ahead as Election Day nears.” On the flip side, sophomore Bianca Simons thinks “Clinton will win the presidential election because the American public wants a president who exhibits great temperament, and in the debates, Trump has not handled himself well, so he doesn’t have a great image in the eyes of Americans.”

As the hours go by, the presidential election grows closer and closer, and the next president will be elected tonight on November 8, 2016. This election has been very controversial, and will go into the history books as being so. No matter who is elected, this election has ushered in a new era of candidates and changed many of the conventions of the election process.

Sources: FiveThrityEight, 270 to Win, Politico, electionprojection

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